Earnings Preview: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) moved up 16 times out of last 28 quarters

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) is projected to declare fiscal first quarter financial results right before the stock market’s official open on April 25, 2017. The stock lost about -6 percent in price since last results when it was at $98.15 a share. Based on the most relevant past-periods data, there is an 57.14 percent probability for this firm’s share price to go up following next quarterly results. Earnings reaction history tells us that the equity price moved up 16 times out of last 28 reported quarters. It has beaten earnings-per-share estimates 75% of the time in its last 12 earnings reports. It fell short of earnings estimates on 1 occasions, and it has met expectations 2 times.

Here’s how traders responded to CAT earnings announcements over the past few quarters.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Earnings Surprises & Reaction

Given its history, the average earnings announcement surprise was 13.64 percent over the past four quarters. Back on January 26, 2017, it posted earnings per-share earnings at $0.83 which beat the consensus $0.65 projection (positive surprise of27.69%. For the quarter, revenue came in at 9.57B versus consensus estimate of 9.84B. The stock dropped -0.95 percent the session following the earnings reports were released, and on 7th day price change was 0 percent.

On October 25, 2016, it reported earnings at $0.85 a share compared with the consensus estimate of $0.75 per share (positive surprise of 13.33%). Revenue of 9.16B for that quarter was below the $9.88B analysts had expected. The stock retreated -1.76% the day following the earnings announcement, and on 7th day price change was -2.94%.

On July 26, 2016, it recorded $1.09 a share in earnings which topped the consensus estimate of $0.96 (positive surprise of 13.54%). Revenue for the quarter was $10.34B while analysts called for revenues to be $10.11B. The stock gained 5.15% the day following the earnings data was made public, and on 7th day price change was 4.14%.

On April 22, 2016, it announced earnings per share at $0.67 versus the consensus estimate of $0.67 per share (negative surprise of 0%). That came on revenues of $9.46B for that period. Analysts had expected $9.45B in revenue.

Caterpillar Inc. Earnings Estimates

As Q1 earnings announcement date approaches, Wall Street is expecting earnings per share of $0.58. The analysts’ present consensus range is $0.47-$0.91 for EPS. The market consensus range for revenue is between $8.84B and $9.42B, with an average of $9.11B.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) last ended at $92.64, sending the company’s market cap near $54.33B. The consensus 12-month price target from analysts covering the stock is $92.95. The share price has declined -6.86% from its top level in 52 weeks and dropped 0.72% this year. It recently traded in a range of $92.26-$93.53 at a volume of 4353180 shares. The recent trading ended with the price nearly -3.16 lower for the last 5 trading days, rebounding 37.81% from its 52-week low.


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