During the last full week of November, we saw crypto prices fall by 30% or more, in some cases. And while Ripple XRP was not the worst hit of the bunch (Ethereum’s massive losses saw Ripple pass it up for #2 crypto market cap), XRP nonetheless saw consecutive days of double-digit losses. Fortunately, prices have rallied during the last days of November, though we’re still nowhere near the price heights of January 2018.
So what does the immediate future hold for XRP/USD? Should you buy Ripple now in anticipation of a near future rally? Will Dilip Rao’s appearance at a World Bank seminar help to stimulate upward price momentum? We’d like to think that all signs point to significant XRP gains in the days to come. However, we’re more convinced that trying to figure out the future price action of XRP/USD is to consider the wrong currency pair.
BTC/USD Continues to Dominate the Crypto Market
The cryptocurrency markets cannot behave rationally until qualified crypto projects like Ripple can de-couple from BTC/USD. The recent November market crash was due entirely to massive selloffs of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still seen as the strongest and most useful digital currency in the world. When investors panic sell Bitcoin, they’re putting their money into fiat, not altcoins.
This may be on the verge of changing. There are a number of cryptocurrencies that have a credible argument for being better than Bitcoin. Ripple is at the top of the heap. The platform is lightning fast, essentially free to use, benefits from cooperative international regulations, is widely used institutionally, and succeeds on its own technological merits (not those of second layer solutions).
Sure, Ripple isn’t decentralised in the same way Bitcoin is, but its success in banking applications is widespread and undeniable. By contrast, one has great reason to question the supremacy of Bitcoin, a currency that has failed to make significant institutional inroads, and which is starting to show its age in very conspicuous ways.
We’re not saying that Bitcoin has to fall for Ripple to rise, though that may actually be the case in today’s market. The better thing would be for Ripple to take on value independent of Bitcoin – to be seen as a successful tech project on a firm footing all its own. In this mode, Ripple could have a price that rose and fell on the merits of its software and partnerships, not on the public’s whims about Bitcoin.
Until then, the crypto market is fundamentally irrational. As Ripple and other standouts continue to thrive, we believe this de-coupling will occur. And the sooner, the better.