Earnings Reaction History: Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has a 57.14% chance to decline

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is projected to declare fiscal first quarter financial results right before the stock market’s official open on April 27, 2017. The stock lost about -3.8 percent in price since last results when it was at $84.86 a share. Based on the most relevant past-periods data, there is an 57.14 percent probability for this firm’s share price to go down following next quarterly results. Earnings reaction history tells us that the equity price moved down 16 times out of last 28 reported quarters. It has beaten earnings-per-share estimates 83% of the time in its last 12 earnings reports. It fell short of earnings estimates on 2 occasions, and it has met expectations 0 time.

Here’s how traders responded to XOM earnings announcements over the past few quarters.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Earnings Surprises & Reaction

Given its history, the average earnings announcement surprise was 11.91 percent over the past four quarters. Back on January 31, 2017, it posted earnings per-share earnings at $0.9 which beat the consensus $0.72 projection (positive surprise of25%. For the quarter, revenue came in at 61.02B versus consensus estimate of 62.28B. The stock dropped -1.14 percent the session following the earnings reports were released, and on 7th day price change was -1.83 percent.

On October 28, 2016, it reported earnings at $0.63 a share compared with the consensus estimate of $0.6 per share (positive surprise of 5%). Revenue of 58.68B for that quarter was below the $63.85B analysts had expected. The stock retreated -2.46% the day following the earnings announcement, and on 7th day price change was -3.75%.

On July 29, 2016, it recorded $0.41 a share in earnings which missed the consensus estimate of $0.64 (negative surprise of -35.94%). Revenue for the quarter was $57.69B while analysts called for revenues to be $60.41B. The stock dropped -1.38% the day following the earnings data was made public, and on 7th day price change was -3.01%.

On April 29, 2016, it announced earnings per share at $0.43 versus the consensus estimate of $0.28 per share (positive surprise of 53.57%). That came on revenues of $48.71B for that period. Analysts had expected $48.14B in revenue.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Earnings Estimates

As Q1 earnings announcement date approaches, Wall Street is expecting earnings per share of $0.88. The analysts’ present consensus range is $0.4-$1.12 for EPS. The market consensus range for revenue is between $64B and $70.83B, with an average of $67.49B.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) last ended at $81.42, sending the company’s market cap near $337.61B. The consensus 12-month price target from analysts covering the stock is $88.23. The share price has declined -12.51% from its top level in 52 weeks and advanced -8.97% this year. It recently traded in a range of $81.05-$81.94 at a volume of 9419877 shares. The recent trading ended with the price nearly -1.7 lower for the last 5 trading days, rebounding 4.05% from its 52-week low.